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The
boards of Tata Steel and CSN will be in rushed meetings
to see how far they should go to acquire Corus. Their
bankers will be doing their own number crunching. CNBC-TV18
reports on who will have the last word.
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January 2007 will be a red-letter day in the calendars
of Corus, Tata Steel and CSN. If there are competing bids
by then, Corus will go the Dutch auction way. The boards
of CSN and Tata Steel are busy figuring out just how far
they should go. But they are working under the watchful
eye of their bankers.
"Although
the financiers will have an appetite for leverage, at
the end of the day on a non-recourse basis, they would
want to see sufficient cash flow coming out of the bid
to ensure that the cash flow is repaid," said Ian
Gomes, chairman, new and emerging markets group, KPMG.
Repayment
is not the only issue. Analysts say that the chinks in
Corus'' armour may limit how high the bids go.
"Everybody
knows that Corus'' margins are extremely thin, and anybody
who is lending to this deal will be aware of the fragility
of Corus'' margins and the danger of a market deterioration,"
comments Robert Jones, steel editor, Metal Bulletin.
"There
has to be a tipping point beyond which you can go no further.
If the debt is to be serviced out of Corus'' profits, there
has to be a limit to the size of that debt. So I don''t
really see this bidding going that much higher,"
said Steve Mackrell, director, operations, Iron and Steel
Statistics Bureau.
But
just how high will the bids go? That''s the billion-dollar
question. The
main criterion bankers are expected to be studying is
the profitability - the ability to generate future cash
flows.
The
bidders are doing their math on how far they should go.
Behind them, their backers and bankers are doing their
math how far they should let them go.
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