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As
problems in the housing and sub prime markets spread,
investor risk appetite has shrunk. In the US credit markets;
investors are shunning deals with innovation and added
risk.
To
counteract growing investor reluctance during the first
half of August, central banks around the world pumped
liquidity into the financial markets.
"For
at least two years, Standard & Poor''s Ratings Services
has argued that investors were too complacent about risk,"
says David Wyss, managing director and chief economist
at Standard & Poor''s. "Now, they are over-reacting
in the opposite direction. How much and how far they''ll
over-react remains to be seen. History suggests that the
credit markets will normalise fairly quickly, but that
could still be months away."
Fixed-income
investors have turned to the havens of government securities
and cash and cash equivalents--such as bank deposits,
CDs, and plain-vanilla commercial paper--to avoid the
current uncertainty. "Liquidity will re-emerge when
the repricing of risk actually reaches a new level,"
commented Jean-Michel Six, Standard & Poor''s chief
economist for Europe.
The
securitised mortgage market has experienced the greatest
investor pullback, but risk aversion has extended well
beyond that. "Up until a couple of months ago, companies
were able to refinance with unfettered access to the capital
markets," noted Diana Vazza, managing director and
head of global fixed income research at Standard &
Poor''s.
"Now, all that has changed. Issuance in the US has
fallen off a cliff."
Although
both high-quality and high-yield offerings have felt the
chill in the markets, speculative-grade issuance that
Standard & Poor''s rates have nearly frozen. Investment-grade
offerings, while also lower, have fared comparatively
better. "The market will still consider more conventional,
soundly structured deals at higher rates," said Vazza.
The
rating agency''s paper, Investors Are Finally Remembering
What ''Risk'' Means, examines various aspects of the current
liquidity squeeze.
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