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Who
is the most powerful human being alive on this planet? No, it is not george Bush,
Hugo Chavez or Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. All those who wield political power can safely
be excluded, as it is being repeatedly proven that they are making themselves
more and more ineffective and irrelevant. In this fast globalising world where
money does all the real talking, it must be the moneybags who have all the power.
But the trouble
is there are too many mega-billionaires these days and there is no clear leader.
Our own K P Singh of DLF saw his net worth jump by as much as $4.5 billion in
a single day this week, which must be the biggest ever wealth addition in a day
anywhere in the world! Besides,
except for some eggheads like Bill Gates and Warren Buffet, all the mega-rich
are likely to keep most of their money for their own progeny. As long as President
Bush continues to swear by democracy, that is definitely not the politically correct
thing to do. In a democratic world, the wider you distribute the spoils, the more
influence and power you are perceived to wield. Then
the most powerful should be a person who can create immense wealth with a flourish
of his pen to ensure that the benefits are distributed widely, or democratically.
Oh, that is
definitely Ben Bernanke the most powerful central banker in the world until
last month and, after the big stock market rally we have seen over the last two
weeks, the most powerful human alive. Period. All
it took is a US Fed Rate cut for global markets to brush aside concerns over an
economic slowdown and inflation on record oil and other commodity prices and the
billions lost by banks in last month''s credit crisis. All
major global indices have scaled record highs and some like China and India are
galloping without pause. Trillions of dollars have been added to that often chimerical
commodity called ''investor'' wealth'' in a matter of days. One can hardly believe
that global investors yes the Chinese are often an exception the
bravehearts that they are, were trembling just last month on fears of a global
credit squeeze. Is
it so simple? If a 50 basis points cut in the Fed rate could save the global
economy from the biggest crisis since the Great American Depression, as the big
boys form Wall Street said last month, then Ben Bernanke must have been crazy
not to have done it in August instead of leaving the rate unchanged. Why did he
wait until September after hapless hedge funds and traders in exotic derivatives
were driven out of business? Why did he let markets go through the pain, fleeting
though it turned out to be? It
has now been officially disclosed that Ben talked to Bob Rubin, President Clinton''s
treasury secretary and now one of the top shots Citigroup, and other Wall Street
heavyweights before delivering the markets from annihilation. So,
did Wall Street bully Ben into dropping his more hawkish stand on inflation within
a matter of two weeks? The
truth is, Ben Bernanke did what any sensible central banker would do when faced
with demand slowdown in the economy. Size of a rate cut is always debatable, but
it is well accepted that such measures should surprise if monetary policy is to
be effective. A full-blown crisis in the financial markets and tight liquidity
would have worsened the already weak outlook for the US economy. Nobody
likes a recession, not even central bankers, especially ahead of a presidential
election. As a columnist said in the Financial Times yesterday, "in
democracies bad stuff is outlawed" if politicians want to be re-elected.
But a large
interest rate cut is like giving first aid to an accident victim, which in this
case is the US economy. First aid is delivered without knowing or checking the
full extent of injuries and it is often difficult to predict whether the patient''s
condition will improve. All that is known is that the victim is injured and will
take some time to recover. If
the economy is weak, with increasing risks of it turning even weaker, and emergency
support has been given in the form of an interest rate cut, why are markets so
bullish? Strange as it may sound, but it is because conditions may get even worse
and more rate cuts may follow! Rate
cuts bring the omnipotent force called liquidity into the markets and everyone
will be happy and more prosperous. Declining corporate performance in a weak economy
and soaring stock valuations be damned. But,
can Ben also spring a nasty surprise? What if Ben Bernanke decides that
financial markets have partied enough, and decides to focus more on his pet peeve
inflation? Then he may hike interest rates or keep them steady and the
markets will be in for a huge disappointment. We all know what happens when markets
are disappointed, especially when the indices are at lifetime highs investors
panic. But Ben
has to keep cutting interest rates as the US economy is still weak and inflation
is under control, doesn''t he? Yes, the US economy is weak and can slip further.
The housing bust is not yet over and can pull down consumer spending in a big
way. Going by the house price futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, average
house prices in major US cities may slip another 10 per cent by 2011. That will
be the biggest decline in history. If that happens Ben will have no choice but
to do what Greenspan did after the internet bubble burst - keep cutting interest
rates until the economy revives. That
sounds simple. But, Ben also has to deal with a monster called inflation. When
Greenspan started his rescue mission earlier this decade, crude oil was averaging
$20 per barrel. Prices of most other major commodities were at historic lows.
Greenspan also didn''t have to worry much about the proliferation of complex financial
derivatives that can worsen any potential crisis. Bernanke doesn''t have any of
these props. He must keep an eye on prices while steering policy in an increasingly
complex environment. The
emerging ''emerging market'' bubble Emerging markets have been the biggest
winners over the last couple of weeks as overseas funds flew in droves. Even before
last month''s meltdown, or correction as many call it, there were many who said
valuations were highly stretched. While the correction was on they were gloating
in TV interviews claiming, "I said so". After two weeks, there are pessimists
no more. Nobody is worried about valuations or declining margins anymore. And
price-earning multiples have shot up even higher, it is nearly 25 for BSE Sensex
stocks and believe it or not over 50 for the Shanghai Composite
Index stocks. One more to China! This
exuberance is driven by only one factor - currency. Most global fund managers
are now convinced of one thing - the only way forward for the US dollar is down.
The possibility of Asian central banks dumping the dollar, triggering a sharp
down move in its value, has increased - if you ask them. When that happens, Asian
currencies will gain most. So funds are flowing into Asian equities and fund managers
are dreaming of the day when the US dollar collapses. Even
if the decline is more calibrated, they will still make their money. If the rupee
appreciates by another 10 per cent by March next year as predicted, foreign investors
would have made 10 per cent even if the Indian indices remain at these levels.
That is sufficient for many of these investors. After all, fund managers may have
to make only around 10 or 15 per cent to beat their benchmark indices next year
and take home their fat bonuses. But,
all these may not be as simple and straightforward as most of us assume. The US
government will come under increasing pressure to defend the dollar. Cheaper currency
will make life even more difficult for the US consumer, who are used to a diet
of Chinese goods and Middle East oil. Trade partners like Europe has already demanded
that the US support its currency more actively. With the real prospect of a Democrat
US president by next year, the greenback may even stage a pullback rally. By
the time that happens, if it happens, it is quite possible that emerging market
stocks would have rallied some more. But, most of these markets already appear
like oversized. Bubbles they may not yet be, but bloated they definitely are.
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